Christy Clark could have won the May 2013 B.C.
provincial election. I know that sounds strange—both because it refers to a
future event as if it has already happened, and because it is hard to imagine her
ever winning. Either way, the “past
unreal conditional” is the only grammatical tense in which a Liberal victory
can be imagined.
The Liberals’ demise was chiefly because of the
HST. When Gordon Campbell saw that the deficit looked much
bigger than expected, he began to panic. He looked at the money that the
federal government was putting on the table for the conversion to the HST, and
he went for it. This was suspiciously
soon after the 2009 election, and was bound to produce a strong public
reaction, but Campbell figured that he could weather the storm. But the HST was different: small business-owners saw the HST repel
customers and hated the costs of repeated conversion; British Columbians didn’t
have an appetite for another big, regressive tax. By 2011, Campbell could see the writing on
the wall, and got out.
It is always difficult for a new leader of a party
that has been in power for a decade or more to convincingly portray himself or
herself as “the change”. In Clark’s
case, she could have done so first and foremost by cancelling the HST and the
referendum. Such a move likely would have produced a bump in the polls. She
could then have consolidated this lead by announcing a wide-ranging policy
renewal process, and perhaps even have recruited a couple of star candidates .
Instead, she merely tinkered with the HST, and pussy-footed the Gateway pipeline while the
NDP was given full latitude to identify itself with popular resistance to both
of those issues. Environmental and First Nations constituencies that Campbell
had masterfully pried away from the NDP have been alienated from the government
by issues like Gateway and Taseko Lake.
Otherwise, the main impression Clark has given has been one of
vacillation and drift, a politics of personality rather than policy.
To be sure, the recent budget goes some distance to
remedy this impression: it is balanced, sensible (apart from its neglect of
forestry funding), and praiseworthy. The
corporate tax rate increase from 10 to 11 percent and a two-year increase in
personal tax rates on incomes over $150,000 represents a long-overdue fiscal
correction to Gordon Campbell’s regressive policies.
But all of this strikes me as too little, too
late. In order for Christy Clark to win the May 2013 election,
she needed to bravely jettison the HST, and to follow that first master-stroke with a comprehensive policy review to reinforce the
impression of genuine change. That did
not happen, and it is too late to do it now.